Chicago, IL—Circana released its annual Circana Compass report, a summary of the global retail food and beverage (F&B) industry performance for the current fiscal year with a preview for the year to come. The latest edition highlighted the market's anticipated 2025 dollar sales growth to be 3.2%, price/mix at 3%, and volume gains at 0.2%. The estimations fall in line with the company's 2024 Compass report which projected dollar sales growth between 2% and 4% for 2025, driven by price/mix increases of 1.5% to 3.5%, and volume growth ranging from 0% to 1%. Other key insights from the 2025 Circana Compass report include:
- Mass, club and value retailers continue to attract consumers by adapting to shifting perceptions of value
- Consumers are becoming increasingly health-conscious, opting for protein-rich foods while scaling back on alcohol and indulgent snacks in favor of products that offer nutritional benefits
- Tighter budgets among low-income and Hispanic households, along with demographic shifts like declining birth rates and slower immigration trends, are impacting overall category performance
- The e-commerce sector is steadily growing, fueled by advancements made by major retail players
Global Growth
Based on this year's report, in 2024 Circana correctly predicted the market performance of two global regions: EMEA and APAC. With F&B sales in the EMEA market being fueled by heightened demand for private-label brands, which represent 41% of F&B sales despite fewer promotions, the region's full-year growth is trending in line to reach +4% in value projection. The APAC market performance is also tracking +3.7% growth in value up to mid-year. Unit growth of +1.4% supports Circana’s expectation that price stabilization would drive unit acceleration in 2025, reaching +1.6% by year end.
While price increases of select commodities, like cocoa and coffee, pushed retail F&B price growth in 2025, price growth in other F&B areas remained more moderate. Retail volumes continued to grow at a smaller rate than in 2024 and consumer confidence momentum stalled slightly more than anticipated at the time of the report. Core macroeconomic indicators, especially in the Australian economy, improved as anticipated.
2026 Food & Beverage Projections
For 2026, Circana expects United States F&B price/mix growth of 3% to 5% due to ongoing cost pressures, competitive retail pricing, and strategic promotional activity. Volume growth is expected to remain tight, estimated at -1% to 1%, as consumers continue to adopt more value-driven and multifunctional eating habits. These dynamics suggest dollar sales growth will range from 3% to 5%, suggesting continued sector resilience.
The main drivers behind these numbers? Value, health, and demographic shifts. While value is relative to the consumer, it consistently favors mass, club, and value retailers. E-commerce continues its upward trajectory grow, driven by advancements from the largest retailers. Health-conscious behaviors is having a significant affect on the market with consumers prioritizing higher-protein diets, reducing alcohol and snack consumption, and opting for products with premium, health-driven ingredients. Tighter budgets among low-income and Hispanic households, combined with demographic changes like declining birth rates and slower immigration trends, are shaping the performance of the overall category.
“We’ve observed slowing volume growth in the first half of 2025, with a modest increase of 0.4%,” shared Sally Lyons Wyatt, Global Executive Vice President and Chief Advisor for Circana. “Consumers are prioritizing in-home food and beverage spending while redefining ‘value’ with an emphasis on convenience and functionality. With these evolving behaviors, the CPG industry must strategically identify ways to stimulate demand and remain profitable. Circana continues to provide the data-driven insights necessary to guide these decisions.”
