Today's global omega-3 market is experiencing a convergence of forces that extends well beyond normal production cycles. Climate variability, declining fish harvests, rising global demand, and growing competition for marine resources are creating a fundamentally different supply environment. Rather than isolated shortages, the industry is facing structural challenges that could reshape sourcing strategies for years to come. 

For supplement brands and contract manufacturers, these developments present more than procurement concerns. They influence pricing, product development, inventory planning, profitability, and long-term business resilience.  

Based on our assessment, demand might outgrow supply in 2027 if El Niño conditions persist, creating potential widespread shortages of omega-3 ingredients on store shelves and disrupting product availability across markets. Together with other industry experts, we encourage retailers and brand owners to review their omega-3 sourcing strategies and reduce dependence on a single raw material by diversifying into complementary alternatives, including krill oil and algae-derived omega-3s. 

Peru’s Anchovy Fishery Supplies 50% of Fish Oil for Supplements 

Compounding these challenges is the return of El Niño conditions, when warmer ocean temperatures alter marine ecosystems. In Peru, anchovy populations become more difficult to harvest, creating additional pressure throughout the supply chain. Previous El Niño cycles demonstrated how quickly raw material availability can tighten, sending fish oil prices significantly higher across global markets. Current forecasts suggest that similar conditions may continue to influence supply well into the coming fishing season. 

For supplement companies, these environmental events are no longer isolated weather stories. They have become much riskier with direct implications for areas like ingredient costs and manufacturing schedules, and that is just the beginning.  

The Growing Competition for Marine Resources 

An important misconception within the supplement industry is that consumer demand is the primary force driving fish oil markets. Dietary supplements only represent one segment competing for crude fish oil.  

Aquaculture remains the largest consumer of global fish oil production. Farmed salmon and other fish species depend on EPA and DHA to support growth, health, and feed efficiency. Therefore, fish oil is an essential component of commercial aquaculture operations. 

Because of their purchasing scale and long-term supply agreements, aquaculture producers often have greater leverage during periods of constrained supply. Their ability to potentially absorb higher raw material costs can place supplement manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage when fish oil availability declines.  

Although aquaculture and dietary supplements typically use different grades of fish oil, both ultimately rely on the same underlying marine harvest. When total production falls, shortages inevitably ripple across multiple industries, reducing flexibility for manufacturers throughout the value chain. 

Demand for Omega-3 Continues to Accelerate 

The supply disruptions triggered by the 2023 El Niño event exposed a critical weakness in the omega-3 market, highlighting how concentrated global EPA and DHA sourcing has become, leaving many businesses exposed when a major supply channel is disrupted. 

Organizations relying on a single source of omega-3 ingredients can be among those who will be hit harder. And as availability tightens, companies might encounter depleted inventories, extended lead times, delayed product launches, and lost revenue opportunities. At the same time, escalating raw material prices can compress margins, increase manufacturing costs, and force difficult commercial decisions. 

In my view, the industry now faces an even more pressing challenge.  

Unless companies broaden their sourcing strategies, global demand for omega-3s could surpass available supply within the next 12 months, creating shortages that may ultimately be reflected on store shelves around the world. Because qualifying and implementing a new EPA and DHA source takes time, waiting until shortages become severe is no longer an option. 

The demand for EPA and DHA is continuing to accelerate as the world's population expands, life expectancy increases, and consumers place greater emphasis on long-term health and preventative nutrition. The real question is no longer whether demand will grow, but rather whether the industry's supply base can meet it. 

The demand for EPA and DHA is continuing to expand across nearly every major market segment, and aging population demographics are one of the strongest long-term drivers. As life expectancy increases worldwide, consumers are placing greater emphasis on healthy aging, cardiovascular wellness, cognitive performance, joint mobility, and vision health, all areas where omega-3s have been extensively researched. 

At the same time, the pet nutrition industry has experienced tremendous growth as consumers increasingly view companion animals as family members and are investing in premium nutritional products that support pet health. Omega-3 ingredients have become a cornerstone of many premium pet formulations, adding to the growing demand. 

Healthcare trends are also creating new opportunities. For example, the popularity of GLP-1 medications has created interest in complementary nutritional products designed to support overall wellness during usage. Meanwhile, prescription omega-3 therapies continue to gain traction in several global markets. We have seen in our science, specifically, that krill oil is a complementary nutrient ally for muscle preservation and healthy metabolism.  

Emerging economies represent another major growth opportunity as increasing incomes and greater awareness of preventive health are accelerating supplement adoption across Asia-Pacific, particularly in China and Southeast Asia, where demand for premium omega-3 products continues to increase. 

There is no question that these trends imply that competition for EPA and DHA is likely to intensify rather than diminish over the coming decade and diversification will be critical. 

Expanding the Role of Krill and Algae-Based Omega-3s 

A diversified omega-3 portfolio offers several strategic advantages, including:

• Greater protection against supply interruptions;
• Improved purchasing flexibility during periods of market volatility;
• Enhanced sustainability and traceability credentials;
• More stable product development timelines;
• Better alignment with evolving consumer preferences.

Rather than being viewed solely as a sustainability initiative, portfolio diversification is increasingly recognized as a practical risk-management strategy that helps companies build resilience while adapting to changing market conditions. As brands look to strengthen supply security, alternative omega-3 sources are attracting growing attention. 

Today, the market is sending two clear signals. First, consumers are increasingly receptive to alternative sources of omega-3s, creating exciting opportunities for future growth. Second, brands have choices, but they need to act now. 

By diversifying with krill and algae, brands can address both challenges simultaneously, improving supply resilience while meeting evolving consumer expectations for efficacy, sustainability, and quality. In today's market, the greater risk lies in standing still rather than taking the first step toward diversification. 

Krill oil has established itself as a differentiated marine ingredient, offering phospholipid-bound omega-3s alongside naturally occurring nutrients such as choline and astaxanthin. Consumer awareness has increased steadily over recent years, and research indicates that many existing fish oil users are willing to consider krill as an alternative. Once consumers adopt krill oil, satisfaction and long-term loyalty tend to remain high. 

This growing consumer confidence is supported by a reliable and resilient supply chain. Historically, El Niño climate events have had no impact on the krill fishery, making krill a reliable, predictable source of omega-3s with consistent availability and a stable supply chain. 

In addition to krill oil, algae-derived omega-3 ingredients are important for diversification. Ingredients sourced from algae are becoming increasingly attractive due to their reliable production, which is not constrained by marine ecosystems or fluctuations in wild fish stocks. As fish oil availability remains under pressure, algae-based omega-3s are well positioned to benefit from growing demand. At the same time, increasing emphasis on environmental responsibility is expected to support broader adoption of algae-derived, precision fermentation, and other transparent, low-carbon omega-3 ingredients. 

The strongest growth potential is expected in segments where expanding scientific validation aligns with rising consumer interest. Businesses that pair robust clinical research with products addressing specific health priorities and consumer preferences are likely to be best placed to capitalize on the next phase of omega-3 market development. 

Long-term success will depend on companies' ability to anticipate and respond to these evolving market dynamics. Strengthening supply chain resilience, advancing ingredient innovation through scientific investment, and developing solutions that address emerging health and sustainability priorities will be critical competitive advantages in an increasingly dynamic omega-3 landscape. 

A New Chapter Ahead 

The omega-3 category is entering a new chapter in which diversification is no longer an option, it’s a defining what long-term leadership in the global omega-3 market will look like.  

Climate uncertainty, expanding global demand, and increasing competition for marine sources are creating a marketplace where supply security can no longer be taken for granted. Companies that continue relying exclusively on traditional sourcing models may face greater exposure to shortages, pricing volatility, and operational disruption. 

On the other hand, organizations that invest in diversified sourcing strategies today will likely gain important competitive advantages tomorrow. Building flexibility into ingredient portfolios, strengthening supplier relationships, and incorporating alternative omega-3 sources is the next wave.  

Success in the next generation of omega-3 nutrition will not be determined solely by who formulates the best products. It’s also about who can secure reliable access to the quality ingredients that make those products possible. 

Companies that proactively adapt to this new landscape will be better positioned to maintain supply continuity and meet consumer expectations in an increasingly competitive marketplace.